Four years before the 2020 pandemic, our music faculty at American River College in Sacramento, California noticed a surprising shift: online music classes were filling rapidly—sometimes within days—while in-person sections struggled to meet minimum enrollment. Though we had offered online courses since 2006, by 2016 we had expanded to a wider range of fully-asynchronous general education offerings. Within weeks, these sections reached capacity, and the 20-student waitlists filled quickly. Meanwhile, corresponding in-person sections remained underenrolled, with some close to cancellation. This pattern repeated across fall, spring, and summer terms.
When we asked students why, their reasons made sense. Flexibility topped the list, especially for those juggling jobs, family care, or long commutes. Others felt more comfortable in environments where they could pause lectures, complete assignments at their own pace, and avoid the pressure of real-time responses. The online format also provided consistent access to materials: recorded lectures, curated music links, and supplemental resources that could be reviewed at any time. High schoolers in dual enrollment programs appreciated the ability to study outside traditional school hours. Adults changing careers could fit coursework around work and family. Retired learners liked the freedom to study from anywhere. For most students, especially younger ones, using digital tools to learn felt natural. They had grown up with them.
American River College is one of California’s 116 community colleges, and with more than 32,000 students, it is among the largest. Over half of our students qualify for the California Promise (a tuition-free initiative), and nearly a quarter live below the regional poverty line. Many juggle serious life challenges while pursuing their education. These realities shape how students engage with college—and increasingly, how they choose to access it. Today, four years after returning post-COVID, 86% of our students take at least one online course, and 51% are fully online. Just 14% attend exclusively in person.
These behavioral shifts did not happen in isolation; they reflect deeper technological and cultural transformations that have been unfolding for years. Several long-term trends have converged to shape this moment: the 2007 launch of the iPhone, the integration of digital tools into K–12 classrooms, and the increasingly online, on-demand ways students interact with the world around them. More recently, the rise of artificial intelligence has further accelerated these changes, reshaping education by influencing how students access, produce, and engage with knowledge (Katsamakas, Pavlov, and Saklad 2024, 5-7). This evolution hasn’t just changed how students learn—it’s reshaped what they expect from education itself. As we navigate what may be the most profound disruption to traditional learning models in decades, how should faculty and institutions respond?
Faculty across the U.S. are aging: the median age is 49, and 37% are over 55 (American Association of University Professors 2023). Many continue teaching well into their later years, often using pedagogies shaped by their own educational experiences. Yet, today’s students are not the same as those we taught 15 or 20 years ago. They have grown up in a completely different world, and they are navigating vastly different economic, social, and technological realities. If we are serious about their success—and the future of our programs—we must evolve alongside them. In addition to generational shifts, we face a second challenge: the pool of traditional high school graduates is shrinking, a trend often referred to as the “student cliff.” This anticipated decline stems from long-term demographic changes—especially falling birth rates—that pose serious challenges for enrollment-driven programs. Some projections indicate that the number of U.S. high school graduates will peak in 2025, followed by a steady decline of 5% by 2031 and 12% by 2037 (Lane, Falkenstern, and Bransberger 2024). While states like Florida and Texas may see modest gains, others including California and New York are projected to see declines of approximately 15% (Startz 2024).
This projected decline does not exist in a vacuum. It is part of a broader shift already reshaping higher education. Falling birth rates, rising tuition, mounting student debt, and evolving cultural attitudes toward higher education all have fundamentally altered the enrollment landscape. We must now rethink who our students are and how we reach them. Colleges across the country are grappling with these questions in real time, and the pressures are already being felt on the ground.
These challenges are not theoretical. Over the past two years, I have presented at several regional and national conferences, including College Music Society events, and heard consistent concerns from colleagues. While elite conservatories and flagship universities may continue as usual, smaller institutions are under pressure. Enrollments are down. Courses are being cut. Entire departments—or even colleges—are at risk. In private conversations, many of us have shared how drastically things have changed. One colleague said candidly, “I don’t know a music school in our region that isn’t struggling with enrollment.” In Northern California, we have seen performance programs vanish and music pathways at some colleges diminished to the point of near extinction. Even the most well-resourced public and private institutions are not immune to shrinking enrollments and course cuts.
Despite diminishing numbers among students in their twenties, California’s community colleges have rebounded, serving more than 2 million students again for the first time since 2019 (Burke 2024). Current growth is driven by non-traditional students: dual-enrolled high schoolers and adults returning to college to reskill or change careers (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center 2024). These students primarily access college through online education. They don’t just prefer it—they often depend on it.
As these shifts unfold, we must ask ourselves: Have we adapted quickly enough? Many music programs still operate on a model built for a very different time. But that is exactly why this moment holds so much potential. The digital tools refined during the pandemic—video platforms, online courses, collaborative apps, and even global mentorship networks—can help us reimagine how music is taught and who has access to study it. These innovations aren’t merely convenient—they’re transformational. They allow us to dismantle long-standing barriers of geography, schedule, and cost.
We no longer have to imagine what this future might look like—it is already unfolding. Business, engineering, and computer science departments have embraced online learning in their degree programs. And in music, institutions such as the Berklee College of Music, Manhattan School of Music, and Full Sail University now offer online bachelor’s degrees. At American River College, we are in our third year offering California’s only fully online Associate Degree for Transfer (AA-T) in Music. Since launching in 2023, the program has tripled in size and continues to grow.
The shift is already underway. Music education can—and must—enter the twenty-first century. The tools are ready. The students are ready.
The moment is here.
References
- 2023. Annual Report on the Economic Status of the Profession, 2022–23. https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/ARES-2022-23.pdf.
- 2024. “Enrollment at California’s Community Colleges Surpasses 2 Million.” EdSource, February 21. https://edsource.org/updates/enrollment-at-californias-community-colleges-surpasses-2-million.
- 2024. “Artificial Intelligence and the Transformation of Higher Education Institutions: A Systems Approach.” Sustainability (via arXiv preprint, February 2024). 10.48550/arXiv.2402.08143.
- 2024. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates. Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/.
- 2024. Current Term Enrollment Estimates (CTEE) Spring 2024. https://public.tableau.com/views/CTEESpring2024Report/CTEES24?.
- 2024. “Are Colleges Really Facing an Enrollment Cliff?” Brookings, October 17. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/are-colleges-really-facing-an-enrollment-cliff/.
Copyright © The College Music Society. All Rights Reserved.
